Scenario

Scenario Outputs

Energy policy scenarios definition for cold and wash appliances

Cold appliances

Several Energy Policy Scenarios (EPS) were set for cold appliances (i.e. refrigerators and freezers) and washing machines under the E-GRIDS project, to forecast the evolution of their energy efficiency and consumption up to 2010. Scenarios were built taking into considerations the energy policy measures at present under discussion between the European Commission and EU Member States. These consist in an energy labelling scheme - set according to the framework Directive 92/75/EEC and relevant implementing Directives - and an energy efficiency target - to be applied either voluntarily via a negotiated agreement with manufacturers or compulsorily via specific directives. Seven EPS were built for cold appliances and three for washing machines. Once defined for the European Union as a whole, EPS were applied also to Member States and to two Accession Countries in Central Europe: Hungary and Poland.

For cold appliances, two labelling schemes - Labelling Option 1 and Labelling Option 2 - were set along with two efficiency targets, named Minimum Energy Efficiency Requirement and Voluntary Agreement Target, representing respectively the proposal for a mandatory legislation and for a negotiated agreement. The combination of these basic options leaded to the design of six scenarios for these products, namely:

Baseline (BSL)

See the Member States and EU unitary energy consumption trends for this scenario

which is the energy profile under the hypothesis of no new policy measure. Under this scenario, the only policies directly influencing the energy efficiency of the cold appliance market are the energy labelling and the mandatory minimum efficiency requirements. . It is generally assumed that the Directive 96/57/EC has no further direct influence on the market after its coming into force in autumn 1999, apart from preventing the return of less-efficient appliances and that the influence of the labelling directive, assumed to stay unchanged, is continuing even if weakening. The energy-label scheme continues to exert its pressure to raise cold appliance efficiency, resulting in practically all models belonging to class A in 2010.

Energy Label Option 1 (EL1)

which considers the introduction, from January 2004, of a revised energy labelling scheme, via the revision of Directive 94/2/EC, forecasting a complete rescaling of the A to G scale: the old energy efficiency class A is split in 5 new classes, from A to E; the old class B becomes the new F and the old classes from C downward (where still existing) become the new class G.

Energy Label Option 1a (EL1a)

which considers the introduction from January 2004 of the same revised energy labelling scheme set in scenario EL1, but with a less effective implementation due to the major confusion in consumers created by the downgrading of the models during the rescaling procedure.

Energy Label Option 2 (EL2)

considers the impact of the introduction, again from January 2004, of a revised energy label scheme forecasting the maintenance of the present A to G scale with its EEI thresholds and the addition "on-top" of two new classes, called "A+" and "A++", to indicate the best models available on the market. Comparing the new scheme with the present energy labelling, class A is split into 3 classes (A, A+ and A++).

Energy Label Option 1 + Minimum Energy Efficiency Requirement (EL1+MER)

considers the enforcing of an EU-wide mandatory minimum energy efficiency requirement at EEI=55 from January 2007 (via the revision of the Directive 96/57/EC) along with the upgrading of the energy labelling directive 94/2/EC according to the labelling scheme described in scenario EL1 starting January 2004. In practice this scenario represents the building of mandatory minimum energy efficiency requirements on top of the revised labelling scheme.

Energy Label Option 1a+Minimum Energy Efficiency Requirement (EL1a+MER)

which is the repetition of scenario "EL1+MER", in which the labelling scheme is applied less effectively

Energy Label Option 2 + Voluntary Agreement Target (EL2+VAT)

which assumes that a Voluntary Commitment for cold appliances is negotiated with industry, wherein the current C class appliances are phased out as per January 2004 followed by a "fleet" (i.e., weighted according to the sales of the different models for each manufacturer) average efficiency of new products, reaching the EEI=52 level by 2006. Contemporarily the labelling scheme described in scenario EL2 is enforced through the revision of Directive 94/2/EC. Again, the voluntary target is built in parallel with the revised labelling scheme

Washing Machines

For washing machines a labelling scheme, named Energy Label was set along with an efficiency target, named Voluntary Agreement Target, to be applied possibly via the revision of the presently in force Voluntary Commitment with manufacturers' Association. The combination of these basic options leaded to the design of two energy policy scenarios:

Energy Label (EL)

which considers the impact washing machines of the introduction, from January 2004, of a revised energy label scheme forecasting the maintenance of the present A to G scale with its thresholds and the addition of a new class called "A+", built "on-top" to indicate the excellence models. The new class A+ can be added via a voluntary agreement or via the revision of the Directive 95/12/EC; for the E-GRIDS simulation the mandatory approach was followed; in other words, the present class A is split into 2 classes (A and A+). It is also assumed that only the energy label is revised and that no other additional policy measures are introduced over the BSL scenario.

Energy Label + Voluntary Agreement Target (EL+VAT)

which assumes that a new Voluntary Commitment for washing machines is negotiated with industry wherein the current D class appliances are phased out as per January 2004 followed by a "fleet" average specific energy consumption of new products reaching 0,20 kWh/kg by 2008. Contemporarily the labelling scheme described in scenario EL will be enforced through the revision of Directive 95/12/EC. The voluntary target is therefore built on top of a revised labelling scheme

Scenario settings

Each scenario is divided into two parts: the historical series covering the years from 1992 (for cold appliance) or 1996 (for washing machines) to 2001, for which the energy profile of sold appliances is known, representing the common part for all scenarios. Different data sources were available for these years: the technical database series about the models put on the market in each year, the sales weighted database series, in which each model was weighted by the number of the sold units in each year, and - but only for washing machines - the production weighted database series, coming from the notary report set in the framework of the first Voluntary Commitment. The second part of the scenarios is the projection from 2002 to 2010, which is specific for the different scenarios.

The energy profile of the investigated appliances is represented by the percentage of the models belonging to the seven energy efficiency classes (from A to G) set in labelling directives. The difference between the forecast average energy consumption in each scenario and the Baseline is the average energy saving of that specific scenario. Since two or even three different historical series were available for the EU for the common part of each scenario, two or three sets of results were obtained for the simulation at European level. On the other side, for most Member States only sales weighted databases were available for both product types.

National programmes, such as incentives or rebate schemes, energy taxation, etc. were not taken into consideration. However, the impact of these national policies on the rate of penetration of more efficient models until 2001 is already "embedded" in the energy efficiency profile of the cold appliance market in those years. In addition, it should be reminded that E-GRIDS project is focused on European-wide policies and the impact on Member States is considered more the sensitivity analysis of the average case than a case-by-case simulation.

Application of the EU EPS to Member States and Accession Countries

EU-EPS were then applied to Member States (Finland, Greece, Ireland and Luxembourg were not analysed for cold appliances and Denmark, Finland, Greece, Ireland and Luxembourg for washing machines) plus Hungary and Poland. The main assumption applying the EPS for cold appliances to Member States was that the growing rate of efficiency classes in BSL scenario is equal to the corresponding average EU rate using the models weighted historical series. For washing machines, the EU growing pattern was applied to each efficiency class in each scenario but using the national growing rates. The main consequence for both products is that the impact of the EPS in each country depends mostly from the distribution of the models in A-G classes on the national market in the year before the starting of the simulation, which is 2000 or 2001, and from their average energy consumption. Specific adaptations of the scenarios, mostly in terms of efficiency classes growing rate, were sometime introduced due to the situation (usually the lacking of data for one or more years) in a given country.

Sample of the application of EU-EPS to Hungary and Poland

Balseline	Energy label option1	Energy label option2
			Click on the graphic to zoom

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